Seismic Precursor for the October 7th Terrorist Attack?
Abstract
Seismic waves excited by human activity frequently mask signals due to tectonic processes, and are therefore discarded as nuisance. Seismic noise-field analysis is, however, a powerful tool for characterizing anthropogenic activities. Here, I apply this analysis to examine seismic precursors to the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel. The precursory activity in Gaza included massive mobilization which took place in the hours leading to the attack, and was documented on multiple media outlets. Favourable conditions, which arise due to a temporary lack of anthropogenic activity in Israel, allow remote seismic stations to record signals due to Gaza vehicle traffic. I use these seismograms in order to identify anomalous ground-motions, associate them with pre-attack mobilization, and precisely determine their location. By applying array analysis to three seismic stations located tens-of-kilometers from the Gaza strip, I was able to obtain valuable information on the Hamas attack plans. This suggests that embedding seismic noise-field analysis into decision-making protocols could enhance preparedness, thus providing an opportunity to blunt terrorist attacks and reduce the number of casualties.
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