A Recommended Approach for Treatment of Correlation in Seismic PSA
Abstract
This paper describes an improved and more realistic methodology for analysis of correlation or dependency as part of the overall methodology of seismic PSA (SPSA) for nuclear power plants.The focus is on those classes of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) for which the way correlations or dependencies are analyzed in SPSA makes an important difference to the SPSA results or to the safety insights derived from those results.The fundamental questions are what is the joint probability of seismic-caused failure of two or more SSCs conditional on the occurrence of an earthquake of a given size, and how and why that joint probability may be different from the situation in which those failures are essentially independent.An improved and more realistic methodology is identified and presented, its rationale is explained, and examples are provided to demonstrate how the methodology can be used in practice.
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