Identification and replication of prediction models for ovulation, pregnancy and live birth in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome
Abstract
STUDY QUESTION: Can we build and validate predictive models for ovulation and pregnancy outcomes in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)?
SUMMARY ANSWER: We were able to develop and validate a predictive model for pregnancy outcomes in women with PCOS using simple clinical and biochemical criteria particularly duration of attempting conception, which was the most consistent predictor among all considered factors for pregnancy outcomes.
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Predictive models for ovulation and pregnancy outcomes in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome have been reported, but such models require validation.
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, AND DURATION: This is a secondary analysis of the data from the Pregnancy in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome I and II (PPCOS-I and -II) trials. Both trials were double-blind, randomized clinical trials that included 626 and 750 infertile women with PCOS, respectively. PPCOS-I participants were randomized to either clomiphene citrate (CC), metformin, or their combination, and PPCOS-II participants to either letrozole or CC for up to five treatment cycles.
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, AND METHODS: Linear logistic regression models were fitted using treatment, BMI, and other published variables as predictors of ovulation, conception, clinical pregnancy, and live birth as the outcome one at a time. We first evaluated previously reported significant predictors, and then constructed new prediction models. Receiver operating…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a randomized trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 2 of 5 (High · randomized trial). Randomized trials of a reasonable size are the strongest single-study design. Reported size: 750 participants or records.
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