Clinical and Biological Predictors of Response to Standardised Paediatric Colitis Therapy: A Multicentre Inception Cohort Study
Abstract
Summary Background The lack of evidence-based outcomes data leads to uncertainty in developing treatment regimens in children newly diagnosed with Ulcerative Colitis (UC). We hypothesized that pre-treatment clinical, transcriptomic, and microbial factors predict disease course. Methods We performed an inception cohort study of 428 paediatric UC patients receiving standardised mesalazine or corticosteroids (CS), with pre-established criteria for escalation to thiopurines or anti-TNFα. RNA sequencing (n=206) defined pre-treatment rectal gene expression. 16S sequencing (n=343) characterized rectal/fecal microbiota. The primary outcome was Week 52 CS-free remission (SFR) with no therapy beyond mesalazine. Findings Week 52 SFR was achieved in 150/400 (38%) participants; 74/400 (19%) received thiopurines alone, 12¾00 (31%) received anti-TNFα, and 25/400 (6%) colectomy. Lower baseline clinical severity, higher baseline hemoglobin, and Week 4 clinical remission were associated with achieving Week 52 SFR (logistic model AUC:0.70 (95% CI 0.65–0.75), specificity 77% (CI 71–82), n=386). Baseline severity and week 4 remission were validated inan independent cohort of 274 participants. An antimicrobial peptide gene signature (OR:0.6, p=0.002) and Ruminococcaceae (OR:1.4, p=0.04) and Sutterella (OR: 0.8, p=0.05) abundance were independently associated with SFR after adjusting for the clinical predictors. Amongst moderate-to-severe patients, escalation to anti-TNFα was associated with…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a clinical trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 428 participants or records.
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