Clinical profile analysis and nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality among elderly severe community-acquired pneumonia patients: a retrospective cohort study
Abstract
Background Severe community-acquired pneumonia is one of the most lethal forms of CAP with high mortality. For rapid and accurate decisions, we developed a mortality prediction model specifically tailored for elderly SCAP patients. Methods The retrospective study included 2365 elderly patients. To construct and validate the nomogram, we randomly divided the patients into training and testing cohorts in a 70% versus 30% ratio. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used in the training cohort to identify independent risk factors. The robustness of this model was assessed using the C index, ROC and AUC. DCA was employed to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the model. Results Six factors were used as independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality to construct the prediction model, including age, the use of vasopressor, chronic renal disease, neutrophil, platelet, and BUN. The C index was 0.743 (95% CI 0.719–0.768) in the training cohort and 0.731 (95% CI 0.694–0.768) in the testing cohort. The ROC curves and AUC for the training cohort and testing cohort (AUC = 0.742 vs. 0.728) indicated a robust discrimination. And the calibration plots showed a consistency between the prediction model probabilities and observed probabilities. Then, the DCA demonstrated great clinical practicality. Conclusions The nomogram incorporated six risk factors, including age, the use of vasopressor, chronic renal disease,…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 2,365 participants or records.
Read the paper
Related studies
- Severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 associated with proton pump inhibitors: a nationwide cohort study with propensity score matching
- Levofloxacin-Induced Tendon Rupture: A Case Report and Review of the Literature
- Association between cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and respiratory tract infections in the first 6 months of age in a Korean population: a birth cohort study (COCOA)
- Neuroprotective Effects of Epicatechin against Oxidative Stress-Induced Cognitive Impairment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
- Quality evaluation and in vitro interaction studies between levofloxacin 250mg and diclofenac sodium 50mg tablets
- Molecular Epidemiology of mcr-1 -Positive Polymyxin B-Resistant Escherichia coli Producing Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase (ESBL) in a Tertiary Hospital in Shandong, China
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.