Flocks in Flux: Emergent Dynamics of a Fragmenting Migratory Roost Network
Abstract
Abstract Large-scale animal aggregations function as complex systems where emergent structures such as herds, schools, or roosts govern the movement of populations across entire continents. Despite the importance of these systemic behaviors, observing them at a continental scale has remained a significant challenge. The detection of aerial insectivore roosts on weather radar poses an opportunity to study an aggregation network on such a scale. With decades of radar-derived Tree Swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) migratory roost sizes and locations, coupled with average daily roost switching rates, we constructed a 19-year long multiplex network of roost-to-roost movements across the Atlantic Flyway and assessed how its scale, composition, and topology have responded to changes in bird abundance. Our novel method revealed nonrandomly delineated roost communities, nonlinear structural dynamics, and an overall fragmentation and contraction of the network as bird abundance has declined. These results are the first to reveal the structural dynamics of a single-species animal aggregation network on a continental scale, providing a new framework for assessing the stability of collective systems under environmental stress.
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