Adaptive Bayesian Framework for Fungicide Resistance Monitoring: A Multi-Regional Baseline Platform with Quantitative Decision Support
Abstract
Abstract Fungal phytopathogens cause substantial crop losses, and fungicide resistance continues to erode chemical control options. A major gap in resistance monitoring is the lack of a unified, low-cost platform to leverage the vast, discarded historical summary statistics (mean, SD, n) for proactive management.We compiled a multi-regional dataset of 5,001 isolates from 14 studies (2002–2022) across six continents to build an adaptive Bayesian baseline. The baseline is temperate-weighted; extrapolation to under-sampled regions (e.g., Africa, Oceania) requires quantitative guidance. We developed an adaptive Bayesian mixture model with PSIS-LOO cross-validation to select the optimal subpopulation structure ( K = 1–4), emphasizing that K represents statistical optimality, not biological truth. From this baseline, we built three decision-support tools: (1) Small-sample calibration for low-cost routine monitoring; (2) Distributional anomaly screening to flag unexpected data patterns (AUC = 0.94); and (3) Phenotypic Resistance Index (PRI) for early warning and net benefit assessment. Baseline calibration reduced 95% credible interval width by 70.5% (from 41.7% to 12.3%), lowering minimum routine isolates from 50 to 20–30. The anomaly screening tool detected mean shifts (94.1%), variance compression (88.7%), and complete fabrication (100%). Decision curve analysis (DCA, see Section 2.5.3) showed that PRI-guided management yields positive net benefit across practically relevant…
Read the paper
Related studies
- Understanding the factors influencing fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) damage in African smallholder maize fields and quantifying its impact on yield. A case study in Eastern Zimbabwe
- Alarming situation of emerging H5 and H7 avian influenza and effective control strategies
- Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change
- Atmosphere–ocean oxygen and productivity dynamics during early animal radiations
- Characterization of the global distribution and diversified plasmid reservoirs of the colistin resistance gene mcr-9
- The global seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in pigs: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.