Global Weibull Analysis of Sovereign Reign Durations: A Reliability Engineering Approach to Quantifying Historical Political Stability
Abstract
Abstract The Weibull distribution, a cornerstone of reliability engineering for modelling failure times in mechanical and electronic components, has recently been applied to political history through Saleh's (2019) landmark study of Roman emperors. We extend this approach to a global scale, fitting the Weibull distribution to sovereign reign durations across 31 distinct polities spanning six continents and over 3,000 years of recorded history. The Weibull shape parameter k serves as a quantitative 'political stability index': k 1 implies increasing hazard (stable systems where longer reigns become progressively more likely to end, analogous to wear-out failure in engineering). Our main analysis reveals substantial variation across polities (k range: 0.851–2.721; median 1.240). Sub-analyses stratified by succession mechanism demonstrate that elective systems (pooled k = 1.019) exhibit significantly lower stability than hereditary monarchies (pooled k = 1.298; two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov p
Read the paper
Related studies
- Understanding the factors influencing fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) damage in African smallholder maize fields and quantifying its impact on yield. A case study in Eastern Zimbabwe
- Alarming situation of emerging H5 and H7 avian influenza and effective control strategies
- Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change
- Atmosphere–ocean oxygen and productivity dynamics during early animal radiations
- Characterization of the global distribution and diversified plasmid reservoirs of the colistin resistance gene mcr-9
- The global seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in pigs: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.