An online time-to-event dashboard comparing the effective control of COVID-19 among continents using the inflection point on an ogive curve: Observational study
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text Abstract Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the frequently asked questions is which countries (or continents) are severely hit. Aside from using the number of confirmed cases and the fatality to measure the impact caused by COVID-19, few adopted the inflection point (IP) to represent the control capability of COVID-19. How to determine the IP days related to the capability is still unclear. This study aims to (i) build a predictive model based on item response theory (IRT) to determine the IP for countries, and (ii) compare which countries (or continents) are hit most. Methods: We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak data of the number of confirmed cases in all countries as of October 19, 2020. The IRT-based predictive model was built to determine the pandemic IP for each country. A model building scheme was demonstrated to fit the number of cumulative infected cases. Model parameters were estimated using the Solver add-in tool in Microsoft Excel. The absolute advantage coefficient (AAC) was computed to track the IP at the minimum of incremental points on a given ogive curve. The time-to-event analysis (a.k.a. survival analysis) was performed to compare the difference in IPs among continents using the area under the curve (AUC) and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). An online comparative dashboard was created on Google Maps to present the epidemic prediction for each country. Results: The top 3 countries…
Read the paper
Related studies
- Understanding the factors influencing fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) damage in African smallholder maize fields and quantifying its impact on yield. A case study in Eastern Zimbabwe
- Alarming situation of emerging H5 and H7 avian influenza and effective control strategies
- Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change
- Atmosphere–ocean oxygen and productivity dynamics during early animal radiations
- Characterization of the global distribution and diversified plasmid reservoirs of the colistin resistance gene mcr-9
- The global seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in pigs: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.