Prediction of age-related macular degeneration in the general population: the Three Continent AMD Consortium
Abstract
PURPOSE: Prediction models for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) based on case-control studies have a tendency to overestimate risks. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for late AMD based on data from population-based studies.
DESIGN: Three population-based studies: the Rotterdam Study (RS), the Beaver Dam Eye Study (BDES), and the Blue Mountains Eye Study (BMES) from the Three Continent AMD Consortium (3CC).
PARTICIPANTS: People (n = 10,106) with gradable fundus photographs, genotype data, and follow-up data without late AMD at baseline.
METHODS: Features of AMD were graded on fundus photographs using the 3CC AMD severity scale. Associations with known genetic and environmental AMD risk factors were tested using Cox proportional hazard analysis. In the RS, the prediction of AMD was estimated for multivariate models by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). The best model was validated in the BDES and BMES, and associations of variables were re-estimated in the pooled data set. Beta coefficients were used to construct a risk score, and risk of incident late AMD was calculated using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Cumulative incident risks were estimated using Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident late AMD determined per visit during a median follow-up period of 11.1 years with a total of 4 to 5 visits.
RESULTS: Overall, 363 participants developed incident late AMD, 3378 participants developed…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a case-control, done in people. Its evidence level is 4 of 5 (Low · observational). Observational designs can show an association but not prove cause. Reported size: 10,106 participants or records.
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