Global patterns and trends in lung cancer incidence: a population-based study
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Lung cancer (LC) has been the most common cancer worldwide for several decades. This study comprehensively examined recent geographical patterns and temporal trends in LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 in 43 countries and evaluated the effects of birth cohort and period on temporal trends.
METHODS
Data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were applied.
RESULTS
The age-standardized rate (ASR) was highest in Turkey (69.3 per 100,000 person-years) for males and Denmark (36.7) for females in 2008-2012. Sex disparities were noted in most countries. From 1978-2012, 19 countries had significantly declining trends among males, whereas 26 countries had significantly increasing trends among females. Quasi-reversed V-shaped and U-shaped incidence rate ratios (IRRs) trends indicating birth cohort effects were detected in 26 countries for males, with the highest risks mainly occurring in the 1930-1950 birth cohorts. However, the risks among recent generations have moderately increased in China and Japan for males and sharply increased in Lithuania, Belarus and the Republic of Korea for females. IRR increases were steep among earlier birth cohorts and gradual among the post-1930s cohorts in 15 countries for females. Period effects were more evident than birth cohort effects in 5 countries for both sexes.
CONCLUSIONS
Disparities in LC incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. Our findings…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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