Environmental phenology drives spring migration timing
Abstract
Despite the obvious shift in spring bird migration to earlier dates, the mechanism behind this process remains unclear, partly due to inappropriate climate predictors. Information on the influence of climate is not geographically representative, as it comes almost exclusively from the marginal parts of the continents. The objective of this study is to investigate the mechanism for determining the timing of spring terrestrial bird migration based on a new concept of environmental phenology and phenological navigation, using data from Central Siberia as an example. A literature review suggests that migrants follow the phenology of food resources, the dependence on which intensifies towards the end of migration with increasing seasonality of temperature conditions. We propose the concept of environmental phenology as a mediator between the influence of climate and the response of migrants. We defined the environmental phenology index as the average weighted temperature of the preceding days with weights decreasing exponentially in retrospect. Using original data from the first arrival dates of 145 species in Central Siberia from 1976 to 2025, we demonstrated the effectiveness of the environmental phenology index in predicting arrival dates. This indicator reflects the accumulation of climate information by numerous ongoing phenological processes. Due to its high autocorrelation, it predicts future foraging conditions. Despite significant warming at the study site (0.60 degrees…
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