Dynamics of dengue epidemics in urban contexts
Abstract
Dengue, similar to other arboviral diseases, exhibits complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Even at town or village level, individual-based spatially explicit models are required to correctly reproduce epidemic curves. This makes modelling at the regional level (province, country or continent) very difficult and cumbersome. We propose here a first step to build a hierarchized model by constructing a simple analytical expression which reproduces the model output from macroscopic parameters describing each 'village'. It also turns out to be a good approximation of real urban epidermic outbreaks. Subsequently, a regional model could be built by coupling these equations on a lattice.
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