Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate-based disease forecasting has been proposed as a potential tool in climate change adaptation for the health sector. Here we explore the relevance of climate data, drivers and predictions for vector-borne disease control efforts in Africa.
METHODS: Using data from a number of sources we explore rainfall and temperature across the African continent, from seasonality to variability at annual, multi-decadal and timescales consistent with climate change. We give particular attention to three regions defined as WHO-TDR study zones in Western, Eastern and Southern Africa. Our analyses include 1) time scale decomposition to establish the relative importance of year-to-year, decadal and long term trends in rainfall and temperature; 2) the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and temperature at the Pan African scale; 3) the impact of ENSO on the climate of Tanzania using high resolution climate products and 4) the potential predictability of the climate in different regions and seasons using Generalized Relative Operating Characteristics. We use these analyses to review the relevance of climate forecasts for applications in vector borne disease control across the continent.
RESULTS: Timescale decomposition revealed long term warming in all three regions of Africa - at the level of 0.1-0.3 °C per decade. Decadal variations in rainfall were apparent in all regions and particularly pronounced in the Sahel and during the East African long rains…
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