Generalized Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered model and its contributing factors for analysing the death and recovery rates of the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract
COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease that has infected over 136 million people worldwide with over 2.9 million deaths as of 11 April 2021. In March 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic and countries began to implement measures to control the spread of the virus. The spread and the death rates of the virus displayed dramatic differences among countries globally, showing that there are several factors affecting its spread and mortality. By utilizing the cumulative number of cases from John Hopkins University, the recovery rate, death rate, and the number of active, recovered, and death cases were simulated to analyse the trends and patterns within the chosen countries. 10 countries from 3 different case severity categories (high cases, medium cases, and low cases) and 5 continents (Asia, North America, South America, Europe, and Oceania) were studied. A generalized SEIR model which considers control measures such as isolation, and preventive measures such as vaccination is applied in this study. This model is able to capture not only the dynamics between the states, but also the time evolution of the states by using the fourth-order-Runge–Kutta process. This study found no significant patterns in the countries under the same case severity category, suggesting that there are other factors contributing to the pattern in these countries. One of the factors influencing the pattern in each country is the population’s age. COVID-19 related deaths were found to be notably…
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