Parameterisation of a bluetongue virus mathematical model using a systematic literature review
Abstract
Bluetongue virus (BT) is a vector-borne virus that causes a disease, called bluetongue, which results in significant economic loss and morbidity in sheep, cattle, goats and wild ungulates across all continents of the world except Antarctica. Despite the geographical breadth of its impact, most BT epidemiological models are informed by parameters derived from the 2006-2009 BTV-8 European outbreak. The aim of this study was to develop a highly adaptable model for BT which could be used elsewhere in the world, as well as to identify the parameters which most influence outbreak dynamics, so that policy makers can be properly informed with the most current information to aid in disease planning. To provide a framework for future outbreak modelling and an updated parameterisation that reflects natural variation in infections, a newly developed and parameterised two-host, two-vector species ordinary differential equation model was formulated and analysed. The model was designed to be adaptable to be implemented in any region of the world and able to model both epidemic and endemic scenarios. It was parameterised using a systematic literature review of host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission rates, host latent periods, host infectious periods, and vaccine protection factors. The model was demonstrated using the updated parameters, with South Africa as a setting based on the Western Cape's known cattle and sheep populations, local environmental parameters, and Culicoides spp.…
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Evidence Hub reads this as a review, done in animal, not in people. Its evidence level is 5 of 5 (Very low · case / narrative / animal / in vitro / in silico). Case reports, narrative reviews, and animal, cell or computer-model studies give the weakest evidence for human health.
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