Age and sex adjusted adiposity estimators predict all cause and pneumonia related mortality in hospitalized older patients with severe dysphagia receiving artificial nutrition
Abstract
Background Older adults with severe dysphagia who require percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) feeding and/or total parenteral nutrition (TPN) have substantial mortality risk, yet practical tools for prognostic stratification are limited. Whether age- and sex-adjusted adiposity estimation formulas (CUN-BAE, ECORE-BF, and the Deurenberg formula) can improve risk prediction for all-cause and pneumonia-related mortality in this setting remains unclear. Methods This study is a secondary analysis of a previously established single-center Japanese retrospective cohort of 247 patients aged ≥50 years with severe dysphagia receiving percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) and/or total parenteral nutrition (TPN). Associations of adiposity estimators with all-cause and pneumonia-related mortality were evaluated using Kaplan–Meier analysis, Cox regression, restricted cubic splines (RCS), time-dependent ROC analysis, and the C-index. Incremental predictive value beyond the baseline model was assessed using net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with sensitivity analyses including multiple imputation, exclusion of deaths within 30 days, and additional adjustment for the Clinical Frailty Scale. Results Across tertiles, Kaplan–Meier curves separated significantly for both all-cause and pneumonia-related mortality. In fully adjusted Cox models, the highest tertile was associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR 2.02–2.33) and…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 247 participants or records.
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