Development and validation of mortality risk prediction model for sepsis secondary to pneumonia at intensive care unit admission: a retrospective case-cohort study
Abstract
Background To establish a noninvasive mortality risk prediction model for sepsis secondary to pneumonia (SSP) and validate the model in the prediction of mortality risk in SSP patients at hospital admission. Methods A retrospective cohort of SSP patients were recruited from January 2017 to December 2020 at the Henan Provincial People’s Hospital. Clinical data were collected at admission. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression were used to construct a prognosis prediction model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Another retrospective cohort with SSP was recruited from January 2021 to July 2022 at the same hospital to validate the model. Results A total of 1,337 patients were screened, including 941 patients in the derivation cohort and 396 patients in the validation cohort. The model included age, white blood cell count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, arterial oxygen pressure / fraction inspired oxygen, D-dimer and vasoactive drug use. The area under ROC curve of derivation model was better than sequential organ failure assessment score and APACHE II score (0.777 vs. 0.600 vs. 0.625, p < 0.05). Besides, the proposed model had a significantly higher prediction performance than SOFA and APACHE II scores in the validation cohort (0.803 vs. 0.655 vs. 0.688, p < 0.05). The prediction model was publicly released as an online calculator. Conclusion A…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 1,337 participants or records.
Read the paper
Related studies
- Severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 associated with proton pump inhibitors: a nationwide cohort study with propensity score matching
- Levofloxacin-Induced Tendon Rupture: A Case Report and Review of the Literature
- Association between cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and respiratory tract infections in the first 6 months of age in a Korean population: a birth cohort study (COCOA)
- Neuroprotective Effects of Epicatechin against Oxidative Stress-Induced Cognitive Impairment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
- Quality evaluation and in vitro interaction studies between levofloxacin 250mg and diclofenac sodium 50mg tablets
- Molecular Epidemiology of mcr-1 -Positive Polymyxin B-Resistant Escherichia coli Producing Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase (ESBL) in a Tertiary Hospital in Shandong, China
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.