Heterogeneity of treatment effects by risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension
Abstract
Background: It is currently unknown if disease severity modifies response to therapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We aimed to explore if disease severity, as defined by established risk-prediction algorithms, modified response to therapy in randomised clinical trials in PAH.
Methods: We performed a meta-analysis using individual participant data from 18 randomised clinical trials of therapy for PAH submitted to the United States Food and Drug Administration to determine if predicted risk of 1-year mortality at randomisation modified the treatment effect on three outcomes: change in 6-min walk distance (6MWD), clinical worsening at 12 weeks and time to clinical worsening.
Results: Of 6561 patients with a baseline US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL 2.0) score, we found that individuals with higher baseline risk had higher probabilities of clinical worsening but no difference in change in 6MWD. We detected a significant interaction of REVEAL 2.0 risk and treatment assignment on change in 6MWD. For every 3-point increase in REVEAL 2.0 score, there was a 12.49 m (95% CI 5.86-19.12 m; p=0.001) greater treatment effect in change in 6MWD. We did not detect a significant risk by treatment interaction on clinical worsening with most of the risk-prediction algorithms.
Conclusions: We found that predicted risk of 1-year mortality in PAH modified treatment effect as measured by 6MWD, but not clinical worsening. Our findings highlight…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a meta-analysis, done in people. Its evidence level is 1 of 5 (Highest · pooled evidence). Pooled evidence from several studies sits at the top of the evidence pyramid. Reported size: 6,561 participants or records.
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