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Enrichment Benefits of Risk Algorithms for Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Clinical Trials

Scott JV, Garnett CE, Kanwar MK, Stockbridge NL, Benza RL

American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine, 2021

Abstract

Rationale: Event-driven primary endpoints are increasingly used in pulmonary arterial hypertension clinical trials, substantially increasing required sample sizes and trial lengths. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration advocates the use of prognostic enrichment of clinical trials by preselecting a patient population with increased likelihood of experiencing the trial's primary endpoint.Objectives: This study compares validated clinical scales of risk (Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension, the French score, and Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management [REVEAL] 2.0) to identify patients who are likely to experience a clinical worsening event for trial enrichment.Methods: Baseline data from three pulmonary arterial hypertension clinical trials (AMBITION [a Study of First-Line Ambrisentan and Tadalafil Combination Therapy in Subjects with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension], SERAPHIN [Study of Macitentan on Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with Symptomatic Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension], and GRIPHON [Selexipag in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension]) were pooled and standardized. Receiver operating curves were used to measure each algorithm's performance in predicting clinical worsening within the pooled placebo cohort. Power simulations were conducted to determine sample size and treatment time reductions for multiple enrichment strategies. A cost analysis was performed to…

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Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.

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