Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Dengue in the Philippines: The Case of South Cotabato
Abstract
Background: South Cotabato Province in the Philippines has experienced recurring dengue outbreaks, necessitating spatio-temporal analysis to guide effective prevention and control strategies.
Methods: This study analyzed 4,004 reported dengue cases from 2020 to 2022. Dengue incidence rates were computed per 10,000 population and adjusted for demographic differences. Spatial and temporal patterns were examined using Kulldorff’s space-time scan statistic and Moran’s I for cluster and hotspot detection. Quantum GIS and SaTScan were used to identify high-risk areas, while monthly trends assessed seasonal variations.
Results: The average dengue incidence was 22.6 per 10,000, peaking in 2021 at 27.3. Males and children aged 1–17 years showed higher incidence rates. Two significant spatio-temporal clusters were found: a large cluster (radius 30.30 km, RR = 1.78, p < 0.001) covering Polomolok, Koronadal City, and adjacent areas, and a smaller cluster (radius 4.88 km, RR = 1.14, p < 0.001) in Polomolok. Hotspots included Poblacion and Magsaysay in Polomolok, and Zones II and IV in Koronadal. Seasonal peaks occurred during the rainy season, with an unusual spike in May 2022.
Conclusion: Targeted interventions in hotspot barangays, strengthened real-time surveillance, and community-based vector control are essential. A multi-sectoral approach is vital for sustainable dengue prevention in South Cotabato.
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