Impact-Triggered Seismicity: Essential Physics and a Hierarchical Modeling Framework
Abstract
Abstract We present a systematic analysis of impact-triggered seismicity, identifying the essential physics through timescale separation and order-of-magnitude analysis. Our central finding is that the immediate triggering response (0–100 s) is governed by only two dominant processes: elastic wave propagation and velocity-dependent fault friction. Pore pressure diffusion, damage evolution, and thermal pressurization provide secondary corrections at this timescale, becoming significant only during the subsequent nucleation and post-seismic phases. We propose a three-level hierarchical framework in which the first level (immediate triggering) employs elastic waves with simplified velocity-dependent friction, the second level (nucleation) incorporates rate-and-state friction with state evolution, and the third level (long-term evolution) includes full poroelastic–damage–thermal coupling. Applying this framework to California, we estimate that impacts exceeding 10 14 –10 15 J (equivalent to a 50–100 m diameter meteorite) at distances of 20– 100 km could trigger major earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. The critical energy obeys the scaling law E crit ∝ (τ s − τ 0) 2 r 3 /µ, with the fault stress state and source–fault distance being the dominant controlling parameters. We identify the dimensionless constant C 0 in this scaling relation as the principal source of uncertainty, bounding it between 10 −3 and 10 3 using limiting cases.
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