Burden of lip and oral cavity cancer among young people across South, East, and Southeast Asia: trends from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2030
Abstract
Background: Lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) is a major public health challenge in Asia. Nevertheless, a critical gap remains in understanding the epidemiological burden of LOC among young people (15-44 years) in the region. This study aims to analyze the burden and risk factors of LOC in this age group across the four Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Asian regions from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2030.
Methods: Data on the incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of LOC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the GBD 2021 study for East, South, Southeast Asia, and High-income Asia Pacific. This study assessed the LOC burden among young people (15-44 years) through age- and sex-stratified analyses, evaluated temporal trends via joinpoint regression, examined risk factor contributions, and projected trends to 2030 using the Nordpred age-period-cohort model.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased across all subregions, with the largest rise in East Asia. In contrast, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate declined everywhere except South Asia. In 2021, South Asia bore the heaviest LOC burden among young people in the four Asian subregions. India reported the highest incident cases, deaths, and DALYs in 2021, and Pakistan had the highest ASR for all three metrics. Taiwan (Province of China) showed the largest increase in ASRs over the period. In 2021, smoking had the…
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Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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