Associations between exposure to landscape fire smoke and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a matched case-control study
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The prevalence of landscape fires has increased, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to assess the impact of exposure to landscape fire smoke (LFS) on the health of children.
METHODS
We conducted a sibling-matched case-control study and selected 552 155 children (aged <18 years) from Demographic and Health Surveys in 55 LMICs from 2000 to 2014. Each deceased child was matched with their sibling(s). The exposure indicators were fire-sourced PM2·5 and dry-matter emissions. We associated these exposure indicators with child mortality using conditional regressions, and derived an exposure-response function using a non-linear model. Based on the association, we quantified the global burden of fire-attributable child deaths in LMICs from 2000 to 2014.
FINDINGS
Each 1 μg/m3 increment of fire-sourced PM2·5 was associated with a 2·31% (95% CI 1·50-3·13) increased risk of child mortality. The association was robust to different models. The exposure-response function was superlinear and suggested per-unit exposure to larger fires was more toxic. Based on our non-linear exposure-response function, we estimated that between 2000 and 2014, the five countries with the largest number of child deaths associated with fire-sourced PM2·5 were Nigeria (164 000 [126 000 to 209 000] annual deaths), Democratic Republic of the Congo (126 000 [95% CI 114 000 to 139 000] annual deaths), India (65 900 [-22 200 to 147 000] annual deaths), Uganda (30 200…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a case-control, done in people. Its evidence level is 4 of 5 (Low · observational). Observational designs can show an association but not prove cause. Reported size: 552 participants or records.
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