Bayesian estimation of spatially varying mortality risk using tagged animal data
Abstract
The survival of animals is impacted by landscapes of spatially varying mortality factors including habitat type, predation risk or harvest risk, among others. Characterization of these spatial mortality processes is important for managing animal populations and their habitats, yet this information has proved challenging to capture. Advances in telemetry now make it possible to monitor tagged individuals' locations through time for a wide range of taxa, providing opportunity to assess movement and mortality simultaneously through spatial time‐to‐event data. Existing time‐to‐event modelling frameworks have largely ignored spatially varying mortality processes or have treated an animal's location as fixed at a regional level. Here we present a general spatial survival model for analysing time‐to‐event data arising from animal telemetry. Our model has a flexible Cox regression form and can estimate the effects of conventional non‐spatial risk factors (size, seasonality, etc.), spatial covariates (e.g. habitat type) and spatial variation in risk not explained by covariates on mortality. We show how to fit our model using Bayesian methods and demonstrate applications of our model with several simulated examples and two animal telemetry case studies. Our model produced consistent and unbiased parameter estimates throughout simulations with a variety of spatial and non‐spatial hazards. In the first case study, data from 147 tagged caribou in British Columbia, Canada, revealed a…
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