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Uncertainty Quantification for In Silico Chemistry

Tom Frömbgen, Elizaveta Surzhikova, Jürgen Dölz, Jonny Proppe, Barbara Kirchner, Christoph R. Jacob

ChemRxiv, 2025

1 citation

Abstract

The rapid growth of worldwide computing power has transformed in silico chemistry into a discipline that is integrated into the daily work of many chemists. Nowadays, researchers find it increasingly straightforward to predict a wide range of molecular properties and chemi- cal processes at reasonable computational cost. The resulting abundance of data, generated by quantum chemistry, molecular dynamics sim- ulations, and chemical machine learning natu- rally raises questions about accuracy, precision, and reliability, as well as the systematic treat- ment of errors and uncertainties. Addressing these questions through rigorous mathematical frameworks is at the heart of Uncertainty Quan- tification. In the past years, the incorpora- tion of uncertainty quantification into in silico chemistry has gained attraction, motivated by its ability to provide deeper insights into chem- ical phenomena. In this review, we establish a common language for uncertainty quantifica- tion with respect to in silico chemistry, intro- duce the key mathematical formalisms, and sur- vey the growing body of work that applies un- certainty quantification across different areas of in silico chemistry.

How strong is the evidence?

Evidence Hub reads this as a simulation / modelling, done in computer models (in silico), not in people. Its evidence level is 5 of 5 (Very low · case / narrative / animal / in vitro / in silico). Case reports, narrative reviews, and animal, cell or computer-model studies give the weakest evidence for human health.

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